once upon a time, I was good at math ...
Jun. 28th, 2005 01:20 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
molly_oSo this is a thing that stumps me, but y'all are smart, and I'm hoping someone can explain it in small words:
When you flip a coin, it's a 50-50 chance that it'll land heads-up. And every time you flip it's a new event, so every time you flip, it's 50-50 odds, right?
At the same time, if you're looking at the results of 10 flips, the odds that all 10 flips will have landed heads-up are smaller than the odds that it'll be some mix of heads and tails, right?
So let's say you've flipped a coin 9 times, and it's been heads every time. You're about to flip it the 10th time, and this is a new event, so the chances of getting heads are 50-50. EXCEPT, you also have a string of 9 heads, and the odds of getting 10 heads in a row are lower than 50-50.
So doesn't that mean the odds of getting heads are something less than 50-50??
I am so CONFUSED!!!
When you flip a coin, it's a 50-50 chance that it'll land heads-up. And every time you flip it's a new event, so every time you flip, it's 50-50 odds, right?
At the same time, if you're looking at the results of 10 flips, the odds that all 10 flips will have landed heads-up are smaller than the odds that it'll be some mix of heads and tails, right?
So let's say you've flipped a coin 9 times, and it's been heads every time. You're about to flip it the 10th time, and this is a new event, so the chances of getting heads are 50-50. EXCEPT, you also have a string of 9 heads, and the odds of getting 10 heads in a row are lower than 50-50.
So doesn't that mean the odds of getting heads are something less than 50-50??
I am so CONFUSED!!!